History & Mathematics:

History & Mathematics:

Historical and Technological Dynamics: Factors, Cycles, and Trends

Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2022. – 288 pp.
Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev

ISBN 978-5-7057-6106-7
Editorial Council:

Herbert Barry III (Pittsburgh University), Leonid Borodkin (Moscow State University; Cliometric Society), Robert Carneiro (American Museum of Natural History), Christopher Chase-Dunn (University of California, Riverside), Tessaleno Devezas (University of Beira Interior), Jack A. Goldstone (George Mason University), Leonid Grinin (National Research University Higher School of Economics), Antony Harper (Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting), Peter Herrmann (University College of Cork, Ireland), Andrey Korotayev (Higher School of Economics), Alexander Logunov (Russian State University for the Humanities), Georgy Malinetsky (Russian Academy of Sciences), Sergey Malkov (Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles Spencer (American Museum of Natural History), Rein Taagepera (University of California, Irvine), Arno Tausch (Innsbruck University), William Thompson (University of Indiana), Peter Turchin (University of Connecticut), Douglas White (University of California, Irvine), Yasuhide Yamanouchi (University of Tokyo).

The present Yearbook is subtitled Historical and Technological Dynamics: Factors, Cycles, and Trends. Its articles demonstrate different forms, patterns, and modes of evolutionary development of societies and their subsystems both over very long periods (in fact, the whole historical process) and over relatively short time intervals. We believe that without an in-depth analysis of the forms and mechanisms of development, it is more difficult to understand both the dynamics of the historical process and many contemporary issues rooted in history.

The issue consists of three sections: (I) Long-term Dynamics Factors; (II) Political Cyclicity and Trends; (III) Technological Dynamics and Phases.

We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.



 Leonid E. Grinin and Andrey V. Korotayev     Introduction. On the Forms, Patterns and Modes of Evolutionary Development (Full text)


     I. Long-term Dynamics Factors

 Leonid E. Grinin, Anton L. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev      Technological Dynamics since 40,000 BP to the 22nd Century (Full text)


David J. LePoire      Long-term Dynamics of Ruling Structures in the West, China, and Russia (Full text)


     II. Political Cyclicity and Trends

Sergey V. Dobrolyubov      Simple Bifactorial Model of Structural Cycles Applied to Russian History (Full text)


Marc Widdowson      Global Fear and Long Range Political Cycles: A Mathematical Model (Full text)


Andrey V. Korotayev      Political Centralization and Communal Complexity in Cross-Cultural and Historical Perspective (Full text)


     III. Technological Dynamics and Phases

Leonid E. Grinin and Anton L. Grinin          The Dynamics of Kondratieff Waves in the Light of the Theory of Production Revolutions (Full text)   


 Marc Widdowson     From Covid-19 to Zero-Gravity: Complex Crises and Production Revolutions (Full text)