Kondratieff Waves

Kondratieff Waves

Dimensions and Prospects at the Dawn of the 21st Century

Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2012. – 224 p.
Leonid Grinin (Russia),
Tessaleno Devezas (Portugal),
Andrey Korotayev (Russia)
ISBN 978-5-7057-3287-6
Editorial Council:
Askar A. Akaev (Russia – Kyrghyzstan), Brian J. L. Berry (USA), Valentina M. Bondarenko (Russia), Tessaleno C. Devezas (Portugal), Claude Diebolt (France), Sergey Yu. Glazyev (Russia), Ruslan S. Grinberg (Russia), Masaaki Hirooka (Japan), Boris N. Kuzyk (Russia), Witold Kwasnicki (Poland), Francisco Louçã (Portugal), Vladimir I. Maevsky (Russia), George Modelski (USA), Carlota Perez (Venezuela – UK), Sanjay Prasad (India), William R. Thompson (USA), Andrew B. Tylecote (UK), Yuri V. Yakovets (Russia)
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We start a series of annual almanacs dedicated to the analysis of economic fluctuations of various lengths, but especially – to the study of large-scale wave-like perturbations of the global socioeconomic realm with a characteristic length of about half a century. These fluctuations, or cycles as preferred by some authors, were named ‘Kondratieff waves’ after the famous Russian scientist Nikolay Kondratieff. In the present publication these waves will be frequently referred also as K-waves for short. The analysis of K-waves allows understanding the long-term dynamics of the World System development, as well as to propose future scenarios about the unfolding of the global economy, for it clarifies much for our understanding of the crises of the past and the current global economic crisis.

Kondratieff waves constitute a sort of mystery that has been haunting economic and social researchers for almost a century. Why do we observe such regularity in the long-term behavior of economic and non-economic indicators? Why in certain periods do we observe prolonged upswings, whereas in other periods – notwithstanding all the enormous efforts of interested macroeconomic actors – economic development is accompanied by prolonged depressions? What gets out of order in social and economic mechanisms?

Since the seminal works published by Kondratieff, a number of outstanding researchers have made significant contributions to our understanding of the possible factors affecting and provoking long-term fluctuations of human economic affairs. On the other hand, it has become more and more clear that K-waves influence many social-related processes. However, nobody appears to have found yet an entirely satisfactory solution of ‘Kondratieff's mystery’, and it continues to attract researchers. That is why we have decided to try to unite the forces of such researchers around the new almanac.

This first issue offers a wide panorama of views on the Kondratieff waves' phenomenon; here one can also find information on Kondratieff’s life and works. This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide circle of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of world economics and globalization.



Introduction. Kondratieff's Mystery (Full text)

I. K-Waves in Global Perspective

George Modelski Kondratieff (K-) Waves in the Modern World System (Full text)

Stephen I. Ternyik Economics (Full text)

Anttiheikki Helenius Waves on Waves – Long Waves on the Seven Seas (Full text)

II. K-Waves in National Perspective

Brian J. L. Berry,Denis J. Dean Long Wave Rhythms: A Pictorial Guide to 220 Years of U.S. History, with Forecasts (Full text)

Claude Diebolt Cliometrics of Economic Cycles in France (Full text)

III. Global Crisis: A K-Wave Perspective

Tessaleno C. Devezas The Recent Crisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory (Full text)

Michel Husson, Francisco Louçã Late Capitalism and Neo-Liberalism – A Perspective on the Current Phase of the Long Wave of Capitalist Development (Full text)

IV. Problems and Forecasts

William R. Thompson Energy, K-Waves, Lead Economies, and Their Interpretation/Implications (Full text)

Carlota Perez Technological Revolutions and the Role of Government in Unleashing Golden Ages (Full text)