History & Mathematics:

History & Mathematics:

Political Demography & Global Ageing.

Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2015. – 176 pp.
Edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev.
ISBN 978-5-7057-4670-5
Editorial Council:
Herbert Barry III (Pittsburgh University), Leonid Borodkin (Moscow State University; Cliometric Society), Robert Carneiro (American Museum of Natural History), Christopher Chase-Dunn (University of California, Riverside), Dmitry Chernavsky (Russian Academy of Sciences), Tessaleno Devezas (University of Beira Interior), Leonid Grinin (National Research University Higher School of Economics), Antony Harper (Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting), Peter Herrmann (University College of Cork, Ireland), Andrey Korotayev (Higher School of Economics), Alexander Logunov (Russian State University for the Humanities), Georgy Malinetsky (Russian Academy of Sciences), Sergey Malkov (Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles Spencer (American Museum of Natural History), Rein Taagapera (University of Califor-nia, Irvine), Arno Tausch (Innsbruck University), William Thompson (University of Indiana), Peter Turchin (University of Connecticut), Douglas White (University of California, Irvine), Yasuhide Yamanouchi (University of Tokyo).

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Among different important issues, which are discussed in Political Demography the issue of global ageing becomes more and more pressing every year. It is sufficient to take into account the point that within two forthcoming decades a rapid global increase in the number of retirement-age persons will lead to its doubling within this fairly small historical period. The concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development.

The present volume of the Yearbook (which is the fifth in the series) is subtitled ‘Political Demography & Global Ageing’. It brings together a number of interesting articles by scholars from Europe, Asia, and America. They examine global ageing from a variety of perspectives.

This issue of the Yearbook consists of two main sections: (I) Aspects of Political Demography; (II) Facing Population Ageing.

We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.


Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev

Introduction. Research into Global Ageing and Its Consequences Full text 5

I. Aspects of Political Demography

David. A. Coleman

Ethnic Transformation of European Societies by Immigration Full text 10

David A. Coleman and Robert Rowthorn

Population Decline – Making the Bestof Inevitable Destiny? Full text 26

Vasil T. Sakaev

The Political Development of Russia in the 21st Century: Challenges of Demographic Factor and the Role of Educational System Full text 42

Andrey V. Korotayev, Jack A. Goldstone, Julia V. Zinkina, Sergey G. Shulgin, Daria A. Khaltourina, and Daria A. Folomeyeva

Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of the Demo-graphic Future of Russia: Seven Scenarios Full text 52

II. Facing Population Ageing

Leonid E. Grinin and Andrey V. Korotayev

Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, and the Global Financial System Full text 81

Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin

Impact of Population Ageing on Asia's Future Growth Full text 107

Mark L. Haas

Population Ageing and the Future of the Great Powers Full text 133

Jack A. Goldstone

Population Ageing and Global Economic Growth Full text 147

Jason L. Powell and Hafiz T. A. Khan

Ageing in Post-Industrial Society: Trends and Trajectories Full text 156

III. Reviews and Notes

Jack A. Goldstone

On Great Divergence, Great Convergence, Industrial Revolution, and California School Full text 167


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