Globalistics and globalization studies

Globalistics and globalization studies

Global Transformations and Global Future

Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2016. – 400 pp.

Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, and Andrey V. Korotayev.

ISBN 978-5-7057-5026-9


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The present volume is the fifth in the series of yearbooks with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global Transformations and Global Future. We become more and more accustomed to think globally and to see global processes. And our future can all means be global. However, is this statement justified? Indeed, in recent years, many have begun to claim that globalization has stalled, that we are rather dealing with the process of anti-globalization. Will not we find ourselves at some point again in an edifice spanning across the globe, but divided into national apartments, separated by walls of high tariffs and mutual suspicion? Of course, some setbacks are always possible, because the process of globalization cannot develop smoothly. It is a process which is itself emerging from contradictions and is shaped by a new contradiction. They often go much further than underlying systemic changes allow. They break forward, as the vanguard of a victorious army, and then often meet resistance of various social and political forces and may suddenly start to roll back just at the moment when everyone expects their further offensive. We believe that this is what is happening with globalization at present.

The yearbook will be interesting to a wide range of researchers, teachers, students and all those who are concerned about global issues.


Introduction. How Global Can Be Global Future? (by Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, and Andrey Korotayev) (Full text) 5

Part I. Big History and Global History

David Baker. 10500. The Darwinian Algorithm and a Possible Candidate for a ‘Unifying Theme’ of Big History (Full text) 10

Ken Baskin. The Dynamics of Evolution: What Complexity Theory Suggests for Big History's Approach to Biological and Cultural Evolution (Full text) 21

Barry Rodrigue. Retrofitting the Future (Full text) 43

Daniel Little. Nation, Region, and Globe: Alternative Definitions of Place in World History (Full text) 48

Julia Zinkina, Andrey Korotayev, and Aleksey Andreev. Mass Primary Education in the Nineteenth Century (Full text) 63

Julia Zinkina, Andrey Korotayev, and Ilya Ilyin. The Nineteenth-Century Origins of the Global Secondary and Higher Education (Full text) 71

Peter Herrmann, Fan Hong, and Remi Rzepka. Education in an International Setting (Full text) 76

Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, and Alexey Andreev. Global History and Future World Order (Full text) 93

Part II. Global Demography

Jack A. Goldstone. Population Ageing and Global Economic Growth (Full text) 111

Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev. Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, and the Global Financial System (Full text) 119

Andrey Korotayev, Jack A. Goldstone, Julia Zinkina, Sergey Shulgin, Daria Khaltourina, and Daria Bykanova. Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of the Demographic Future of Russia: Seven Scenarios (Full text) 139

Ivan Aleshkovski. International Migration and Globalization: Global Trends and Perspectives (Full text) 164

Miriam Farhi-Rodrig. Global Migration: A Transnational Problem (Full text) 177

Part III. Aspects of Globalization and International Politics

Paul A. Smit. Transnational Labour Relations in SADC: Regional Integration or Regional Globalisation? (Full text) 187

Endre Kiss. Constructivity and Destructivity in the Globalization, as a Background of the Problematic of Peace (Full text) 203

Stanislav Bilyuga, Alisa Shishkina, Julia Zinkina, and Andrey Korotayev. Global Correlation between GDP Per Capita and the Level of Sociopolitical Destabilization between 1960 and 2014: A Preliminary Quantitative Analysis (Full text) 213

Olga Kornienko. Social and Economic Background of Blending (Full text) 220

Oleg Alekseenko and Ilya Ilyin. The Theory of High-Level Process Integration Research and Development of Global Communication Networks (Full text) 226

Alexander Lenger and Florian Schumacher. The Social Functions of Sport: A Theoretical Approach to the Interplay of Emerging Powers, National Identity, and Global Sport Events (Full text) 231

Ilya Ilyin, Stanislav Bilyuga, and Sergey Malkov. The Empirical Analysis of the Voting Results in the UN General Assembly (Full text) 249

Olga Leonova. Interpretation of the ‘Soft Power’ Concept in the Russian Political Science (Full text) 271

Olga Kolesnichenko, Alexander Rozanov, and Liu Debin. The Role of BRICS in Global Politics (Full text) 277

Part IV. Energy and Climate

William R. Thompson. Energy, Kondratieff Waves, Lead Economies, and Their Evolutionary Implications (Full text) 283

Yury Sayamov. Strategic Stability and the Role of the Global Energy Sphere (Full text) 303

Mohammad Mohabbat Khan and Md. Shahriar Islam. Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries: Does Globalization Act as a Facilitator? (Full text) 309

Vladimir Klimenko and Alexey Tereshin. Shale Gas: An Energy Miracle or a Climate Disaster? (Full text) 321

Part V. Future and Forecasts

Leonid Grinin and Anton Grinin. The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution (Full text) 337

Valentina Bondarenko. Providing the Balance of Technological and Social Changes in Real-Time Regime Plus the Economic Growth (Full text) 356

Ilya Ilyin, Arkady Ursul, Tatyana Ursul, and Midegue Dugarova. From Millennium Development Goals to Sustainable Development Goals (Full text) 380

Contributors to the volume