Kondratieff waves

Kondratieff waves

Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts

Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2016. – 224 p.
Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, Tessaleno C. Devezas, and Andrey V. Korotayev
ISBN 978-5-7057-5081-8
Editorial Council: Editorial Council: Askar A. Akaev (Russia – Kyrghyzstan), Brian J. L. Berry (USA), Valentina M. Bondarenko (Russia), Tessaleno C. Devezas (Portugal), Claude Diebolt (France), Sergey Yu. Glazyev (Russia), Ruslan S. Grinberg (Russia), Bert de Groot (the Netherlands), Masaaki Hirooka (Japan), Boris N. Ku- zyk (Russia), Witold Kwasnicki (Poland), Francisco Louçã (Portugal), Vladi-mir I. Maevsky (Russia), Leo Nefiodow (Germany), Carlota Perez (Venezuela – UK), Sanjay Prasad (India), Arno Tausch (Austria), William R. Thompson (USA), Andrew B. Tylecote (UK), Yuri V. Yakovets (Russia)

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Though the researchers of the theory of long and medium-term cycles are certainly worried about the economic situation, they understand that the cyclicity still remains an inevitable attribute of economic development. And Juglar's aphorism that crisis is a consequence of the preceded prosperity is still true.

In this third issue of the Yearbook ‘Kondratieff Waves’ with the subtitle ‘Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts’, we present a number of insight contributions on nature, regularities, and interconnections among cycles of different duration. Some economic cycles may result in a severe economic crisis. The current one shows once again the importance of the study of cyclical dynamics and its peculiarities.

Between the 1980s and 1990s the Keynesian receipts were replaced by neoliberal and monetarist ones which seemed to be miraculous as well. The depleted growth was marked with the largest global crisis of 2008 which also showed that within globalization when regulation in the international arena is impossible yet, there recur the signs of Juglar cycles of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries with their uncontrollable upwards and sharp declines evolving into collapses and panic. This is supported by the fact that for eight years the world has been at the depressive phase.

This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization.

This research has been supported by the Russian Foundation for the Humanities (Project No 16-02-14053 г).


Introduction. The Cyclical Dynamics as Associated with Economic Development (Full text) 5

I. Cyclical Dynamics and Theories

Leonid E. Grinin,

Andrey V. Korotayev,

Sergey Yu. Malkov

The Mathematical Model of Juglar Cycles and the Current Global Crisis (Full text) 14

Arno Tausсh

Kaname Akamatsu. Biography and Long Cycles Theory (Full text) 65

Brian J. L. Berry, Euel Elliott

The Surprise that Transforms. An American Perspective on What the 2040s Might Bring (Full text) 82

Marco Gallegati

Wavelet Estimation of Kondratieff Waves: An Applica-tion to Long Cycles in Prices and World GDP (Full text) 99

Zenonas Norkus

On Global Social Mobility, or How Kondratieff Waves Change the Structure of the Capitalist World System (Full text) 121

II. From My Perspective

Valentina M. Bondarenko

Providing the Balance of Technological and Social Changes in Real-Time Regime Plus the Economic

Growth (Full text) 153

Stephen I. Ternyik

Geonomics, Energetics and the K-Paradox: A Sustainable Point of View (Full text) 181

III. Kondratieff Medal: Winners' Speeches

Elżbieta Mączyńska

Kondratieff – Ethos – Economics

Gold medal (Full text) 190

William R. Thompson

Revising a Long-term Perspective on Kondratieff Phenomena

Silver medal 196

Leo Nefiodow

The Sixth Kondratieff – The New Long Wave of the Global Economy

Bronze medal (Full text) 203

IV. Reviews and Notes

Anthony Harper

Review of L. E. Grinin, A. V. Korotayev ‘Great Divergence and Great Convergence: A Global Perspective’, Springer International Publishing; 2015 (Full text) 210