Global History as a Sequence of Transient Economic Foci

Автор: Ahamer G. - подписаться на статьи автора
Журнал: Journal of Globalization Studies. Volume 11, Number 2 / November 2020 - подписаться на статьи журнала


Empirical evidence shows that the sub-sectors of national economies are likely to follow a certain regularity in their phase of emergence and decrease, measured by the relative share of their contribution to the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This indicates the possibility of viewing techno-socio-economic evolution as a sequence of transient economic foci which corresponds to societal preferences, even ‘values.’ A step of generalisation suggests that any ‘societal value’ can be understood as the second derivative of a characteristic parameter forming a trend. In a view perceiving long-term history as a sequence of regular phases (be these generated by hypothesized cycles or saturation effects), even these second derivatives undergo a principal change and switch from positive to negative signs. These epochs of ‘switching values’ are both logically necessary, historically perceivable and correlated with profoundly changing societal values. The author's Global Change Data Base (GCDB) serves as an empirical foundation for such interpretations of paths in worldwide statistics and provides statistical diagnosis of several transitions that occur in history and techno-socio-economic evolution: deforestation transition, economic transition and energy transition.

Keywords: evolution, Big History, saturation, blossoming evolution, economic sectors, sectoral GDP, Global Change Data Base, transition, values, switching values. 

Gilbert Ahamer, Global Studies, Institute for Economic and Social History more