Contents and Abstracts

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No. 2(56)/2025

A Global View of Modern Processes

Askar A. Akayev. Can Brazil become a turning point in humanity’s global Efforts to Struggle with Global Warming? (pp. 3–12).

This paper presents the main results of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) held in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024, and the expectations for COP30 in Belem, Brazil, which will take place in November 2025. Can Brazil repeat the success of the historic UN Conference on the Environment and Development, in Rio de Janeiro, held in 1992? It is shown that to achieve this it is necessary to gain at least three key results: 1) to legally enshrine the specific commitments made by developed countries agreed upon at COP29 in Baku; 2) to adopt constructive and binding settlements to stop deforestation of tropical forests and preserve them, with subsequent restoration of forests worldwide; 3) to de facto transfer leadership in the fight against global warming from the collective West to the BRICS+, which is laying the foundation for a new and more equitable, multipolar world order.

Keywords: global warming, UN climate conference, COP29 and COP30, Belém, Paris Climate Agreement, greenhouse gases, green technologies, energy transition, BRICS+ leadership.

Leonid E. Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev. Global North and Global South: Development Prospects (pp. 13–29).

The role of the Global South in global economy and politics is growing. Therefore, on the one hand, there is a growing interest in its countries on the part of countries of the Global North. On the other hand, the contradictions between developed and developing countries have intensified. Nevertheless, the common goals that were a priority for most countries in the World System quite recently, have not disappeared, and their joint achievement is objectively necessary. Therefore, the issue of studying strategies for achieving these goals remains relevant. This article discusses how different groups of countries can advance towards globally recognized goals successfully and narrow the development gap.

Keywords: World System, Global North, Global South, developed countries, developing countries, globalization, deglobalization, common world goals.

Nature and Society

Andrey M. Burovsky, Alexander A. Fedorov. Energy of Society and Nature (pp. 30–49).

This article attempts to compare the energy of natural processes and the energy parameters of society. It includes the energy spent on heating and lighting cities, operating transportation, and feeding people and livestock; and the energy wasted in fires, including the Moscow Fire of 1812.

The authors conclude that modern humanity uses energy comparable to the energy of basic natural phenomena: tides, winds, river runoff, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes. This makes technological civilization a global civilization, but humanity continues to lag behind the energy of even that portion of the Sun's energy that reaches Earth.

This amount of energy needs to be harnessed to become a civilization of the solar system.

Keywords: energy of society, energy from rivers, tidal energy, wind power, fire energy, energy from volcanic eruptions, earthquake energy.

Theory and Modernity

Boris M. Kondorsky. Some Aspects of the Theory of Revolutions (Based on Materials from Modern Russian Historians) (pp. 50–83).

The problem of the theory of revolutions is very popular among many leading foreign historians. In particular, interest increased after the events of the late 1980s – early 1990s in the USSR and Eastern Europe. This applies to modern Russian historians as well, whose views on this historical phenomenon the author will attempt to analyze. Revolutions are considered as a profound upheaval in all major spheres of society, usually accompanied by a transfer of power from one class to another. Main attention is paid to the causes of revolutions, a crisis phenomenon associated with the process of modernization. Before a revolution, there is a notable weakening of authorities, a loss of trust in them on the part of the population. Attention is drawn to the role of the elite aspects and ideology in revolutions. The author considers the historical process as a sequence of stages, each characterized by its own archetype and the nature of historical consciousness and social space. The transition from one stage to another occurred in a revolutionary way. Revolutions formed the potential for subsequent development. In addition to stages, the author distinguishes two eras: social and public. The author examines the concept of “revolution” as a historical category. The concept of “revolutionary period” is introduced as a time system within which revolutions take place. The article examines main patterns of revolutionary periods characteristic of the New Age revolutions. Three main groups of states are identified based on timing and the nature of revolutionary period.

Keywords: revolution, revolutions in France, revolutions in Russia, historical process, modernization, ideology, elite, legitimacy of power, dictatorship.

Ruslan I. Guseinov. Protests in Armenia in 2024 (pp. 84–95).

The article analyses quasi-revolutionary protests in Armenia in April-June 2024.

The analysis outlines the main cause of the protests – the factor that is polymogenic, induced by Armenia’s military defeat by Azerbaijan in 2023, which led to Azerbaijan establishing a full political and military control over Nagorno-Karabakh. The article describes the historical and political background of these protests within a particular revolutionary epoch, which were a part of the protests in Armenia in 2024, as well as a chronological account of the main events of these protests. Despite Pashinyan’s resignation demands, this episode should be called a quasi-revolutionary one as the opposition failed to make sufficient efforts for a revolutionary siege of government.

Keywords: quasi-revolutionary episode, protests, Armenia, Pashinyan, Galstanyan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Tavush region, Azerbaijan.

The Formation of a New World Order

Alexander S. Khodunov. The Peculiarities of Euro-Atlantic Integration of the Republics of Former Yugoslavia against the Background of the Transformation of the World Order. Part 2. Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (pp. 96–131).

The second part of the article examines in detail the specifics of Euro-Atlantic integration in two large countries of the former Yugoslavia (Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina) in the context of the transformation of the global order. Rapprochement with the European Union and NATO has often been accompanied by the growing influence of left-liberal ideology and a certain weakening of sovereignty in these countries, particularly in the case of Croatia. However, the EU accession has yielded some positive economic benefits. In recent years, the accelerated transformation of the global order has deepened the rift between those countries and peoples of the former Yugoslavia that have joined or are seeking to join the European Union and NATO, and the Serbs who are largely categorically opposed to joining NATO due to traumatic events in 1999. Recently, many Serbs have also become disillusioned with the EU. The processes of Euro-Atlantic integration in other former Yugoslavian countries and territories are also briefly discussed.

Keywords: Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Slovenia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo, European Union, NATO, transformation of world order, Croatian “croatists”, Croatian “globalists”.

Contents and Abstracts (pp. 132–134)