History & Mathematics:

History & Mathematics:

Processes and Models of Global Dynamics

Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2010. – 256 p.
Edited by Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev, Arno Tausch
ISBN: 978-5-7057-2665-3
Editorial Council:
Herbert Barry III (Pittsburgh University), Leonid Borodkin (Moscow State University; Cliometric Society), Robert Carneiro (American Museum of Natural History), Christopher Chase-Dunn (University of California, Riverside), Dmitry Chernavsky (Russian Academy of Sciences), Thessaleno Devezas (University of Beira Interior), Leonid Grinin (Volgograd Center for Social Research), Peter Herrmann (University College of Cork, Ireland), Andrey Korotayev (Russian State University for the Humanities), Alexander Logunov (Russian State University for the Humanities), Gregory Malinetsky (Russian Academy of Sciences), Sergey Malkov (Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles Spencer (American Museum of Natural History), Rein Taagapera (University of California, Irvine), Arno Tausch (Innsbruck University), William Thompson (University of Indiana), Peter Turchin (University of Connecticut), Douglas White (University of California, Irvine), Yasuhide Yamanouchi (University of Tokyo)

You can also buy the Almanac from ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House (Volgograd, Russia). Address for orders and inquiries: peruch@mail.ru

A more and more important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. This kind of history can hardly develop without the application of mathematical methods. The history is studied more and more as a system of various processes, within which one can detect waves and cycles of different lengths – from a few years to several centuries, or even millennia. 

This issue is the third collective monograph in the series of History & Mathematics almanacs and it is subtitled Processes and Models of Global Dynamics. The contributions to the almanac present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of global historical, political, economic and demographic processes, as well as their mathematical models. 

This issue of the almanac consists of two main sections: (I) Analyses of the World Systems and Global Processes, and (II) Models of Economic and Demographic Processes. 

We hope that this issue of the almanac will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.



Introduction. History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics (by Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, and Peter Herrmann) Full text (.doc, .pdf) 5

I. Analyses of the World Systems and Global Processes

Tony Harper The Trajectory of the World System over the Last 5000 Years. Abstract, Full text (.doc, .pdf) 13
Christopher Chase-Dunn, Richard Niemeyer, Alexis Alvarez, Hiroko Inoue, Kirk Lawrence, James Love Cycles of Rise and Fall, Upsweeps and Collapses: Changes in the scale of settlements and polities since the Bronze Age.
Abstract, Full text (.doc, .pdf) 64
Arno Tausch, Almas Heshmati, Chemen S. J. Bajalan On the Multivariate Analysis of the "Lisbon Process". Abstract, Full text (.doc, .pdf) 92

II. The Models of Economic and Demographic Processes

Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Sergey Malkov A Mathematical Model of Juglar Cycles and the Current Global Crisis. Abstract, Full text (.doc, .pdf) 138
Michael Golosovsky Hyperbolic Growth of the Human Population of the Earth: Analysis of existing models.
Abstract, Full text (.doc, .pdf) 188
Lucy Badalian, Victor Krivorotov A Dynamic Model of Historical Economies.
Abstract, Full text (.doc, .pdf) 205

III. Cultural Dimensions

Victor C. de Munck The Self is not Culture: Toward a unified theory of self, identity and culture.
Abstract, Full text (.doc, .pdf) 229

List of contributors